Maybe More Autumn Than Strictly August
Barely more than two weeks. That’s all was needed for the headlines to scream “bloodbath”, “end of the bull market”, and the always popular BOND ROUT!!! The 10-year Treasury yield had bottomed out in...
View ArticleUntil This Changes, Forget Inflation: Banks Bought Epic Amounts of Safe,...
The first half of 2021 was inundated with government helicopters, more QE’s, and then CPI’s put up with guarantees the “inflation” was going to continue for a long time. Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan’s often...
View ArticleThe Great Eurodollar Famine: The Pendulum of Money Creation Combined With...
It was one of those signals which mattered more than the seemingly trivial details surrounding the affair. The name MF Global doesn’t mean very much these days, but for a time in late 2011 it came to...
View ArticleThe Curve Is Missing Something Big
What would it look like if the Treasury market was forced into a cross between 2013 and 2018? I think it might be something like late 2021. Before getting to that, however, we have to get through the...
View ArticleAs The Fed Tapers: What If More Rapid (published) Wage Increases Are Actually...
Since the Federal Reserve is not in the money business, their recent hawkish shift toward an increasingly anti-inflationary stance is a twisted and convoluted case of subjective interpretation....
View ArticleLet’s Talk TIPS
Real yields have moved higher, surging, actually, to start this year (up until more recently, that is). The 5-year TIPS rate has gone from ungodly ugly mid-November, sunk down to -191 bps, to a...
View ArticleThe Hawks Circle Here, The Doves Win There
We’ve been here before, near exactly here. On this side of the Pacific Ocean, in the US particularly the situation was said to be just grand. The economy was responding nicely to QE’s 3 and 4 (yes,...
View ArticleYou Don’t Have To Take My Word For It
Stop me if you’ve heard this before. Longtime readers/followers/enthusiasts will be forgiven for immediately thinking I’m quoting myself again, as I so often do: Following its emergence, the...
View ArticleAnother One Inverts, The Retching Cat Reaches Treasuries
As Alan Greenspan’s rate hikes closed in, longer-term Treasury yields were forced upward as the flattening yield curve left no more room for their blatant defiance. By mid-2005, though, the market...
View ArticleWhat, When, Nominal, Forward, Yes, Oil; or, Spreads Everywhere
February 2005, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan goes before Congress to tell the simple-minded politicians there about his “conundrum.” They and the media eat it up because somehow the guy was...
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